Here'a a quote from one of my childhood idols and recently appointed team president of the Texas Rangers:

 

"Anytime you realize you have a problem, the longer you go without addressing that problem, then when you do decide to address it, the tougher it is to do. I think that's where we are with baseball."

 

...now about that world infamous Rangers pitching?

 

As you probably know, I am from Texas.  As a part of that, I've been exposed to extensive, in-depth football analysis for most of my life.  My Grandfather, Grandmothers, Father, Uncles, Cousins, Aunts....   they all loved football as much as any person should love football within reasonable legal limits.  That love definitely rubbed off on me along the way.  Roger Staubach, Mel Renfro, and Randy White are still my lifetime idols.  I'm not kidding, just ask my wife.

 

When I started college, I entered with a major in Meteorology - A discipline rife with mathematics, physics, and statistical analysis.  It was in my junior year at Texas A&M that I made 2 life-altering discoveries:  Geography (GIS in particular), and fantasy football.  I realized that meteorologists earned crappy pay and that the library was no place to meet girls on a Friday night, so I changed my major to Geography.  I also joined my first fantasy football league with my roommates (I had a lot of roommates, but no, I was NOT in a frat - They just aren't big at Texas A&M) and other acquaintances.  I turned my hard-earned math and predictive analysis skills to the National Football League.

 

Now you have to keep in mind that this was the early 90s, and sports fans like me could only dream of web sites that would basically manage everything about a Fantasy Football league.  No, we had to pay our commissioner a salary from the league coffers to go through the royal pain involved in scoring each game of the week with the Tuesday paper (you had to use Tuesday to get the corrections from Sunday, plus the stats from Monday night).  To cap it off, the commish had to personally know everyone and update them of scores because only a few of us had e-mail accounts, and we only checked them about once a month on amber VT 200 terminals sprinkled about campus.   It was a dark time for networked computing.  But that was about to change in a hurry.

 

Only a few years in, the internet REALLY took over.  It was awesome.  Not only was the league taken care of online (1997 was the first year, I believe), but all the stats were calculated automatically and were almost always taken directly from the NFL itself.  It was revolutionary.  In addition to scoring, several hundred fantasy football sites tried to out-duel each other with the most in-depth analysis possible.  In an instant, a mountain of football statistics spanning several decades was available for all to see. 

 

For the next several years, I can't begin to comprehend the analysis I put forth on the NFL and all of its offensive and defensive positional players.  Let's just say it was a lot.  I won some money along the way, but I couldn't help but be reminded that they guy who won the league every year ALWAYS turned out to be one lucky SOB.  All my statistical analysis definitely helped me be consistently good, but in the end the cardinal rule of fantasy football always applies:  whoever has the hottest team in the playoffs wins the cash.

 

Meanwhile, things are changing in my life.  I get married, I have a kid.  All of a sudden, the 500-600 bucks I stand to win in each league of FF pales in comparison with the cost of college tuition at UCLA or Texas A&M in 2023.  So, I made a commitment to devote that same analysis to small, mid, and large cap stocks.  Another revolution.

 

Do you have any idea how hard it is to try to predict who will lead the league in rushing touchdowns in 2007?  You can analyze all you want:  Offensive line free-agent signings, new offensive coordinators and position coaches, the ability of the slot receiver and tight end to spread the field, the strength of defenses faced throughout the year, historical drop-offs in production following a year of 350-plus carries....  Make fun of it all you want, it takes a lot of hard work and analysis to be consistently good at fantasy football.

 

I've found out pretty quickly that it is MUCH easier to analyze and invest in stocks.  You think there's a lot of information available to prepare for your fantasy draft?  There's mountains more available to evaluate companies and their ability to grow earnings at a clip that will trounce the S&P 500 over the next 10 years, and it's all ACCURATE!!

 

Companies are required by law to disclose everything about their operations on a quarterly basis so you can get a snapshot of their financial health from top to bottom (ENRON aside).  NFL teams are not.  In fact, they intentionally try to hide the facts with veiled injury reports or worse - waiting until kickoff to name a starting quarterback!!  The madness!!  Corporate CEOs get thrown in jail if they try such shenanigans (Golden parachutes aside).

 

To all the new Dads or others generally "growing up" in my generation, I say this:  Accept the fact that fantasy football boils down to luck every single year.  Spend the time you would normally spend reading articles like this, and spend it running stock screens, playing CAPS on the Motley Fool, and reading books like "One up on Wall Street" by Peter Lynch.   Trust me, in 20 years, you'll be really glad you did.

 

So I guess at this point I have to come clean...  Yes, I'm playing in 2 fantasy football leagues this year.  I'm the commissioner of an ESRI league, and I still play with the same guys from college.  All my ESRI and Aggie buddies are sharp fellas, so I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who has applied my analysis knowledge to the financial world.

 

On the flip side, my investments are doing well.  I've been at this for a few years, and I'm getting more confidence every day.  I think what makes me feel the best is that I trust myself with my money more than I trust any investment advisor. 

 

After all, I'd never let a guy with a nickname like "Schlub" pick my fantasy team.  Why would I let someone else invest my money?

 

Background:  Texas A&M head basketball coach Billy Gillespie (A NATIVE TEXAN!!) left Texas A&M today to accept the head coaching job at the University of Kentucky.  In the past weeks, coach Gillespie led the Aggies deep into the NCAA tournament, and has publicly stated his intention to stay at Texas A&M.

 

 

(Sniffle)

 

So when you said all those things before....

 

about how this was it and you wanted to stick around forever? 

 

I guess that was just all pillow talk, right? 

 

Quiet one liners after a couple of great runs in the tournament?!?  

 

That really hurts, Billy.  I really thought you meant those things you said.

 

OK, I know...  I need to be grown up about this.   I can accept this like an adult.... 

 

I mean, I'm a strong, respected research university!  I should be smart enough to recognize that I was really playing out of my league there for a while. 

 

Seriously, who am I to think that I'm entitled to a Sweet Sixteen appearance every year?  I'm just a working class school from the Coastal Prairie.  Why, just yesterday, I couldn't give basketball tickets away with a gun!!!  Any conference win at all was worth a whole week of feeling good about myself.   

 

I should have known it wouldn't work out from the beginning....  a big-time coach like you and a little prairie school like me. 

 

OH PLEEAASE!!!  Say it ain't so!!!  You were the one, Billy!!!  Together we took Texas A&M Basketball to places it had never been before!!! 

 

You and me, Billy!!!  

 

(sniffle)

 

I guess you're just telling me now what I knew all along.  It was all just a stepping stone for you, wasn't it?  I remember how - just yesterday - you used to say those mean things about poor old UTEP when you and I were making sweet music in the dance...  And now...  how can I compete with this new kid... Kentucky?

 

I mean...  all that history and success. 

 

UK?  I could never measure up to anything like that.  Adolf Rupp?  The winningest program in Men's College BB?  UK is a trophy wife supermodel I could never be. 

 

But be careful Billy...  That's right.  Be careful what you ask for. 

 

And don't you worry about ole' Army.  

 

Don't you worry about me!  I'm gonna be just fine, Billy!  I'm gonna keep on truckin'!  I'm going to find that person that's right for me.  A person that doesn't need all the bright lights and big city.   You mark it, Billy!   We're going to settle down and we're going to keep moving ahead without you.

 

And one day...  and that time is gonna come, Billy...  that one day when your honeymoon with your sweet little sassy Kentucky is over...  When she and all of her friends and boosters make fun of you and run you out of town...

 

You'll remember me and you'll wish you were back.

 

 

 

Yikes.

 

June 11th was a long time ago.  In my defense, I've been very busy getting up to speed with the new job and new member of the family.  That's right, I'm a Dad!  Our son Nate was born October 25th.  Everything has been fantastic so far (read: tiring), and I can hardly wait until he's old enough to start mowing the lawn .  Seriously though, it's a wonderful thing, and I look forward to this wonderful journey called parenthood.

 

On the ESRI front, I've been very busy dusting off the old technical skills and learning a whole bunch of new ones.  One of the main things I've been doing in Tech Marketing is getting right in there in the thick of the 9.2 release.  I hope to be adding more content in the blog about neat things we've done here and how we've found them useful.  Hopefully you will too.

 

In the meantime, I'll look forward to seeing a lot of you at the Business Partner Conference and Developer Summit coming up in Palm Springs.  If you're there, swing by the ESRI Showcase.  We've got some pretty cool stuff to show off.

 

Hope to see you then.

 

Jeff

Hello again,

 

This weekend was the VW Classic - a week long celebration of all things (and buses, and ghias...)VW.  I had hoped to attend a campout this weekend and caravan to the event with a bunch of other bus owners, but that didn't work out for a number of reasons.  I have it on the slate for next year.  However, I did spend a lot of time on the tarmac taking in the sites.

 

The Classic is held at the Irvine Meadows (now the Verizon Amphitheatre) and is HUGE!!  Wendy and I walked around for 2 hours before we even hit the show cars!  This is the biggest event of the year for VW nuts, and we weren't disappointed.  The VW community from all over the world was out in force, and there were some truly off the wall customs and immaculate show cars.  We saw hundreds of great rides, and I personally heard Spanish, French, German, and Russian spoken by attendees.  Impressive!!  Check out the new photo gallery for details.

 

Cool runnings...

 

Jeff

Hey all,

 

Wendy and I took a couple of extra days off last weekend and spent some time with my family in East Texas.  My Mom has a thing going every year where the family comes in for Memorial Day, so we always try hard to make it back.  It was great to see the family and spend some time in the late May heat.

 

I added a new gallery to the pictures, so check them out.  I don't have a lot from my Mom's place, but I do have a lot from my Dad's ranch a few miles away. 

 

If you like what you see of the ranch, I have good new for you.  Lone Star Cattle Company is not only a world class breeder of shorthorn cattle and monster Bass.  It's also a guest ranch.  If you are in Texas and need a place to get away, you could do worse than this.  See the website for more details.  Just one rule:  Bass over 4 pounds must be released.

 

Enjoy the pics, and more to come soon.  The VW classic in Irvine is just over a week away!!!

 

Jeff

Okey Dokey,

 

2 months without a post is a little out of control.  In my own defense, there has been a lot going on.  Most notably, I've made a change in career at ESRI into Technical Marketing.  My time in Product Management was fantastic, and I can't stress enough what a talented group of developers I've had the pleasure of working with.  Guys like Art, Jay, Ryan, Steven, and the rest of the Server team (Even the non-bloggers ;-) are incredible.  Likewise all the other folks I've worked with for the past few years in Software Products and Product Management.  I feel fortunate for my time with them and the experience was great, but it was time for a change.

 

As such, I have been fortunate enough to move into a role where I get to spend more time doing my 2 favorite things in GIS - building applications for real scenarios and working with ESRI customers.  This was my favorite part of working in Product Management, so why not do it full time?  I have some serious rust to knock off the web development skills, and a whole lot of new stuff to learn, but on the positive side, I'm spending a lot of time coding and working in 9.2.  Did I mention what a great product this is?  You Server and IMS folks out there are in for a real treat, let me tell you. Desktop, GDB, and developers too.  Powerful stuff.

 

I have to make the point that I feel lucky working for a company that allows for movement into new and challenging positions internally.  It's always nice to face new career challenges.  It keeps your work interesting, and ESRI definitely respects that.  It really is a great place to work.

 

So, as I embark on this new chapter in my career at ESRI, I'm very excited.  Hopefully I'll get over the hump on the learning curve soon and start contributing to the ESRI Developer Community.  In the meantime, I just might be coming soon to a trade show near you.  If you're there, be sure to stop in and say Howdy!

 

 

Jeff