As you probably know, I am from Texas.  As a part of that, I've been exposed to extensive, in-depth football analysis for most of my life.  My Grandfather, Grandmothers, Father, Uncles, Cousins, Aunts....   they all loved football as much as any person should love football within reasonable legal limits.  That love definitely rubbed off on me along the way.  Roger Staubach, Mel Renfro, and Randy White are still my lifetime idols.  I'm not kidding, just ask my wife.

 

When I started college, I entered with a major in Meteorology - A discipline rife with mathematics, physics, and statistical analysis.  It was in my junior year at Texas A&M that I made 2 life-altering discoveries:  Geography (GIS in particular), and fantasy football.  I realized that meteorologists earned crappy pay and that the library was no place to meet girls on a Friday night, so I changed my major to Geography.  I also joined my first fantasy football league with my roommates (I had a lot of roommates, but no, I was NOT in a frat - They just aren't big at Texas A&M) and other acquaintances.  I turned my hard-earned math and predictive analysis skills to the National Football League.

 

Now you have to keep in mind that this was the early 90s, and sports fans like me could only dream of web sites that would basically manage everything about a Fantasy Football league.  No, we had to pay our commissioner a salary from the league coffers to go through the royal pain involved in scoring each game of the week with the Tuesday paper (you had to use Tuesday to get the corrections from Sunday, plus the stats from Monday night).  To cap it off, the commish had to personally know everyone and update them of scores because only a few of us had e-mail accounts, and we only checked them about once a month on amber VT 200 terminals sprinkled about campus.   It was a dark time for networked computing.  But that was about to change in a hurry.

 

Only a few years in, the internet REALLY took over.  It was awesome.  Not only was the league taken care of online (1997 was the first year, I believe), but all the stats were calculated automatically and were almost always taken directly from the NFL itself.  It was revolutionary.  In addition to scoring, several hundred fantasy football sites tried to out-duel each other with the most in-depth analysis possible.  In an instant, a mountain of football statistics spanning several decades was available for all to see. 

 

For the next several years, I can't begin to comprehend the analysis I put forth on the NFL and all of its offensive and defensive positional players.  Let's just say it was a lot.  I won some money along the way, but I couldn't help but be reminded that they guy who won the league every year ALWAYS turned out to be one lucky SOB.  All my statistical analysis definitely helped me be consistently good, but in the end the cardinal rule of fantasy football always applies:  whoever has the hottest team in the playoffs wins the cash.

 

Meanwhile, things are changing in my life.  I get married, I have a kid.  All of a sudden, the 500-600 bucks I stand to win in each league of FF pales in comparison with the cost of college tuition at UCLA or Texas A&M in 2023.  So, I made a commitment to devote that same analysis to small, mid, and large cap stocks.  Another revolution.

 

Do you have any idea how hard it is to try to predict who will lead the league in rushing touchdowns in 2007?  You can analyze all you want:  Offensive line free-agent signings, new offensive coordinators and position coaches, the ability of the slot receiver and tight end to spread the field, the strength of defenses faced throughout the year, historical drop-offs in production following a year of 350-plus carries....  Make fun of it all you want, it takes a lot of hard work and analysis to be consistently good at fantasy football.

 

I've found out pretty quickly that it is MUCH easier to analyze and invest in stocks.  You think there's a lot of information available to prepare for your fantasy draft?  There's mountains more available to evaluate companies and their ability to grow earnings at a clip that will trounce the S&P 500 over the next 10 years, and it's all ACCURATE!!

 

Companies are required by law to disclose everything about their operations on a quarterly basis so you can get a snapshot of their financial health from top to bottom (ENRON aside).  NFL teams are not.  In fact, they intentionally try to hide the facts with veiled injury reports or worse - waiting until kickoff to name a starting quarterback!!  The madness!!  Corporate CEOs get thrown in jail if they try such shenanigans (Golden parachutes aside).

 

To all the new Dads or others generally "growing up" in my generation, I say this:  Accept the fact that fantasy football boils down to luck every single year.  Spend the time you would normally spend reading articles like this, and spend it running stock screens, playing CAPS on the Motley Fool, and reading books like "One up on Wall Street" by Peter Lynch.   Trust me, in 20 years, you'll be really glad you did.

 

So I guess at this point I have to come clean...  Yes, I'm playing in 2 fantasy football leagues this year.  I'm the commissioner of an ESRI league, and I still play with the same guys from college.  All my ESRI and Aggie buddies are sharp fellas, so I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who has applied my analysis knowledge to the financial world.

 

On the flip side, my investments are doing well.  I've been at this for a few years, and I'm getting more confidence every day.  I think what makes me feel the best is that I trust myself with my money more than I trust any investment advisor. 

 

After all, I'd never let a guy with a nickname like "Schlub" pick my fantasy team.  Why would I let someone else invest my money?

Okey Dokey,

 

2 months without a post is a little out of control.  In my own defense, there has been a lot going on.  Most notably, I've made a change in career at ESRI into Technical Marketing.  My time in Product Management was fantastic, and I can't stress enough what a talented group of developers I've had the pleasure of working with.  Guys like Art, Jay, Ryan, Steven, and the rest of the Server team (Even the non-bloggers ;-) are incredible.  Likewise all the other folks I've worked with for the past few years in Software Products and Product Management.  I feel fortunate for my time with them and the experience was great, but it was time for a change.

 

As such, I have been fortunate enough to move into a role where I get to spend more time doing my 2 favorite things in GIS - building applications for real scenarios and working with ESRI customers.  This was my favorite part of working in Product Management, so why not do it full time?  I have some serious rust to knock off the web development skills, and a whole lot of new stuff to learn, but on the positive side, I'm spending a lot of time coding and working in 9.2.  Did I mention what a great product this is?  You Server and IMS folks out there are in for a real treat, let me tell you. Desktop, GDB, and developers too.  Powerful stuff.

 

I have to make the point that I feel lucky working for a company that allows for movement into new and challenging positions internally.  It's always nice to face new career challenges.  It keeps your work interesting, and ESRI definitely respects that.  It really is a great place to work.

 

So, as I embark on this new chapter in my career at ESRI, I'm very excited.  Hopefully I'll get over the hump on the learning curve soon and start contributing to the ESRI Developer Community.  In the meantime, I just might be coming soon to a trade show near you.  If you're there, be sure to stop in and say Howdy!

 

 

Jeff

 

 

Hey everyone,

 

Jeff Archer here, starting a cyber-presence.  I've been meaning to do this for a while, but just haven't gotten it all together until now. 

 

I'm a native of Austin, TX and currently reside in San Bernardino, CA - Birthplace of MacDonalds and the Hell's Angels.  I make my living working at ESRI, Inc. in Redlands, CA.  I've studied GIS for both bachelor's and Master's degrees, and I really feel lucky that I'm able to work for the world leader in GIS software technology and to be associated with the top minds in the business.  I'll be adding information to this blog on a somewhat regular basis.  Most of it will be GIS related, but some posts could also contain information about my hobbies or even just some general rants.

 

Hope to get some feedback from all of you out there interested in GIS, fly fishing, old cars, and hair-brained schemes. 

 

In celebration of the return of hockey season, I've attached a picture of myself hanging out with Lord Stanley's cup at the Hockey Hall of Fame in Downtown Toronto.  I think I look a bit like Aubrey Clapper.